Home sales are still down, but at least one builder says some buyers who have held back are starting to surface. The home-buying tax credit is out. Market-timing bargain hunters are in.
Statistics released Monday by the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service showed 654 home sales reported in the Treasure Valley in August, a 33 percent decline from the year's high-water mark of 975 set in April. That's when the $8,000 federal tax credit had first-time buyers scrambling to make offers on homes.
Sales have been trending downward since the incentive package expired at the end of April. The median price of a home in Canyon County fell to $85,000, exactly half what it was in January 2007. The median is the midpoint, with half of all homes selling for more and half for less.
"It's pretty bad right now," said Shaun Tracy, a real estate agent with Boise RE/MAX. "August should be one of the strongest sales months of the year. But it was below January's numbers, which is usually one of the worst months of the year."
Still, at least one ray of sunshine is piercing the gloom of Valley home sellers, home builders and real-estate agents. The median price of a new Ada County home is down from July but up from August 2009, because some higher-priced homes are selling.
Lars Hansen, director of development for Brighton Homes in Boise, said the increase is being driven by buyers who have been waiting to buy at the bottom of the market and worry they will miss it if they don't act now.
"There are a lot of people with cash who have been sitting on the sidelines who think this is the time to buy," Larsen said.
New-home costs are also rising because of higher costs for materials including sheet rock, petroleum-based products used in housing construction, and hardwood flooring.
"The clearance sale is over in terms of what's left in a supplier's warehouse," he said.
The median price of a new home in Ada County climbed to $185,000 last month, an almost 6 percent spike from August 2009. But it was down from $212,000 in July.
New-home sales in Ada County at 59 were off 37 percent, compared with 94 a year ago. Overall, 421 homes sold in the county, up from 392 in July but down from 521 in August 2009.
Canyon County had 233 sales last month, up from 221 in July and better than the 219 transactions year ago. Sales improved as prices fell. The median price in August was off 23 percent from $110,000 a year ago.
Most local governments reported a decline in the number of residential building permits they issued in August.
Meridian, for example, issued 18 single-family permits last month, a two-thirds drop from the 57 issued in July. Boise's 17 permits last month were 32 percent below July's total.
Mile Pennington, an agent with John L. Scott Real Estate, said that after the first eight months of 2010 both Ada and Canyon counties are about 500 sales ahead of the same period a year ago. The total is skewed by the federal incentive program, which created "an artificial market," he said.
"Now it's anybody's guess what's going to happen the rest of the year," he said.
Don Hubble, owner of Hubble Homes in Meridian, said some potential buyers are reluctant to pull the trigger on a home purchase because of continuing economic uncertainty.
"Interest rates are about 4.2 percent for a 30-year, fixed rate mortgage," Hubble said. "It's a pretty strange market when you can own a house for less than you can rent one, and more people aren't buying."
Any uptick in sales will likely have to wait until the unemployment rate starts to fall, said Jenifer Gilliland, building manager with Boise Planning and Development Services.
"Our analysis shows there is a direct relationship between permitting and unemployment," Gilliland said. "We're going to be moving along this same path as long as unemployment languishes at around 10 percent. When unemployment comes down you'll see more activity."
Joe Estrella The Idaho Statesman
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